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El comentario nos hace ver algo que hace mucho tiempo se nos ha dicho pero que hemos hecho oidos sordos a la grandes reformas que necesita el estado como la educación, salud y no nos olvidamos las reforma del mismo estado adecuándolos a los tiempos modernos. Sin inversión en educación va ser difícil tener los profesionales especializados para afrontar los nuevos retos. En los años que he podido apreciar, no se ha hecho lo necesario para afrontarlo y seguimos apostando a la exportación de materias primas (básicamente minerales) sin darle valor agregado. Esperemos que los cambios se den pronto para que nuestras fortalezas sean solidas. la crisis algún día acabará y que yo recuerde los países que han alcanzado no lo han hecho exportando solo minerales, sino tecnologia. Por el bien de nuestro País que el cambio se de pronto y el primer cambio lo debemos hacer nosotros mismo. saludos a todos

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Profesor Parodi la “estrella de América Latina” va a terminar pagando muy caro la falta de capacidad y compromiso de sus Gobernantes. Los profesionales honestos que realmente quieren al Pais no desean intervenir en politica por no verse involucrados en actos judiciales y en la corrupcion generalizada que es nuestro deporte nacional.
La educacion es deficitaria, exportamos a Chile, Argentina y Espana obreros sin especializacion, amas de casa y ayudantes de cocina, mientras ellos nos mandan profesionales y tecnicos, nada menos que 43000 entraron a trabajar al Peru en el 2012. Nuestras escuelas y Universidades privadas son centros de negocios donde se cobra mucho dinero para entregar diplomas que no sirven para nada y no hablemos de la escuela publica ya que nuestros compatriotas ocupan el lugar 160 entre 161 paises.
La falta de infraestructura y tecnologia, es alarmante en el Peru. Efectivamente, hay 10 millones de Peruanos sin agua, desague ni luz electrica. Lo peor es que la incapacidad del Gobierno esta frenando la futura inversion minera, de que sirve un impuesto a la sobreganancia, cuando todas las mineras disminuyeron en 40% sus utilidades? y aqui no termina porque con la crisis economica que esta sufriendo Europa, Estados Unidos y contagiando a China las exportaciones bajaron y los precios internacionales del oro, plata y cobre ya regresaron a niveles del 2008 y siguen para abajo.
La situacion es grave, aunque no se aprecie por el momento, necesitamos urgente de gente capaz, honesta y comprometida con el Peru que tome las riendas del Pais o seremos “los estrellados de latinoamerica” muy pronto.

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No hay que olvidar que las bonanzas y crisis en la economía vienen siendo cíclicas no sólo para el Perú sino resto de paises. Así como ya sucedió con el boom del guano y salitre pareciera que nos avecinamos nuevamente a padecer el este exceso de optimismo de las épocas de bonanaza y subestimar sus consecuencias posteriores.
Algo que ya nos enseñan mucho en las universidades pero creo, que si queremos revertir estas tendencias que ya son arto bien conocidas, es imprescindible estudiar bien es la “historia económica” del Perú.
Cierto además que toda reforma debe partir del conocimiento por tanto la educación es la vía más rápida para poder alcanzar niveles de desarrollo que vayan a la par de los niveles de crecimiento.

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LAS REFORMAS BASICAS URGENTES : EDUCACION Y SALUD. SIN ESTOS DOS PUNTOS
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HAY QUE TENER EN CUENTA QUE NO TODO EL PERU ES LIMA.

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Muy buen articulo. Preocupante la revaluacion del Sol Peruano, en medio de la actual guerra de monedas, la cual empezo hace 5-4 años por Estados Unidos(QE1, 2, 3) emitiendo enormes cantidades para fomentar exportaciones. Luego se unio la Comunidad Europea para financiar los paises en problemas. Ahora recientemente es Japon, devaluando su moneda para no perder competitividad. Curiosamente el Peru ha dejado revaluar su moneda durante estos años, lo cual es bueno para inversionistas (vivo en EEUU) porque tenemos donde depositar para ganar un poco mas de interes, pero de seguro afectara exportaciones peruanas a largo plazo al hacer productos peruanos muy caros. Ya veo algunas tiendas locales reemplazando esparragos peruanos por otros paises

El panorama está definido y nítido pero las actividades del Estado, y en particular del actual gobierno, no lo denotan ni cercanamente. El asistencialismo es lo único que se percibe y la educación resulta el problema mayusculo del futuro inmediato del país. Resulta incomprensible la ineptitud y falta de decisión para siquiera intentar mejorar el enorme deficit de la estructura educativa. Ni en infraestructura ni mucho menos en la problemática del profesorado se tienen tomadas decisiones impostergables. Específicamente el fantasma maligno que representa el Sutep (con sus ramificaciones) no resulta tocado “ni con el pétalo de una rosa”, siendo como es que resulta imprescindible tomar decisiones del tipo de las de Alejandro Magno con el Nudo Gordiano. Y mucho me temo que si algo se hace comienze con el aumento del presupuesto para remuneraciones, luego de lo cual todo se empantane. Ojalá que me equivoque y que las autoridades reciban los consejos necesarios para hallar el rumbo necesario en la Educación, sin lo cual todo lo demás se hará mucho más dificil.

Lo que expresa el Sr. Parodi es verdad… evitemos los triunfalismos, tomemos con calma el reporte del FMI respecto al crecimiento económico del país… en todo caso, nos vendría mucho mejor un reporte que diga a todo el mundo… Perú, el primer país más desarrollado de América Latina.

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Lo que expresa el Sr. Parodi es verdad… evitemos los triunfalismos, tomemos con calma el reporte del FMI respecto al crecimiento económico del país… en todo caso, nos vendría mucho mejor un reporte que diga a todo el mundo… Perú, el primer país más desarrollado de América Latina.

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“… la historia económica mundial demuestra que “los buenos tiempos son malos para aprender”, pues se extiende la sensación de que todo está bien y que siempre será así…”…una de las tareas de los economistas es “ver más allá de lo evidente”.”, “…el crecimiento es una condición necesaria, pero no suficiente para lograr el desarrollo…”,”…existen límites al crecimiento y al desarrollo económico, que están relacionados con reformas estructurales pendientes y no solo con un manejo económico del corto plazo.”.

Me he permitido parafrasear al profesor Parodi, con la mala consecuencia de reducir ínfimamente lo expuesto en esta publicación, porque lamentablemente es muy difícil encontrar en la actualidad opiniones de economistas que “vean más allá de lo evidente” y se conformen con aplaudir y cosechar (¿por conveniencia e intereses individuales?) los resultados “evidentes” de corto plazo.

Hay mucho por desmenuzar, me atrevo a hacerlo por el lado de algunas cifras en la balanza comercial del 2012:

1. Si bien el 2012 se obtuvo, nuevamente, un superávit comercial de 4 mil quinientos millones de US$, éstas disminuyeron en similar cifra con respecto al 2011, es decir en 50%…un momentito, no supongamos que sólo se debe a la minería.
2. Lo anterior, no se explica sólo por la disminución de las exportaciones de los metales como habría de suponerse (-5.3%), sino también por el incremento de los bienes de consumo en casi el 25% como menciona el profesor Carlos en su publicación, y que representan más de mil quinientos millones de US$, es decir similar cifra a la disminuida por el lado de las exportaciones de productos mineros.
3. Si bien los productos no-tradicionales tuvieron un incremento del 9%, si retiramos las partidas de químicos y productos minerales no metálicos que implican poco valor agregado y que además están relacionados a la extracción, nos quedamos con una cifra idéntica a la de los bienes de consumo importados con mucho valor agregado, en donde los automóviles y electrodomésticos representan el 35% de ellos. Nota curiosa, importante de resaltar para darnos cuenta de la fiesta que vivimos, es que la importación de juegos, tragamonedas y artículos deportivos se ha visto incrementada en un 55% (¡!).

Hasta aquí nomás podemos ir diciendo (yo al menos), que a pesar que la balanza comercial disminuye, aumentamos las compras de bienes de consumo con alto valor agregado (técnicos, ingenieros, demás profesionales, científicos, centros de desarrollo, conocimiento, cultura, educación, colegios, universidades y etc., etc.) y si se quiere salvar conciencias, éstas se “financian” vía exportación de productos no tradicionales pero con poco valor agregado (alguna maquinaria, varios operarios, un par de técnicos…y mucha fotografía “marca Perú”)…y es que hay plata para gastar, aunque no sea necesariamente la nuestra, por más que en nuestras “credit cards” estén impresos nuestros nombres.

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Para mi, lo más preocupante lo expresa Carlos Parodi en esta frase: “El exceso de dólares sale de ese país y “chorrea” hacia el resto del mundo que acepta al dólar, a pesar que es la moneda de un país que está en crisis”.
Es evidente que USA fabrica dólares virtuales. “Un impulso electrónico en un computador” predecía Alvín Tofler como dinero del futuro en el año 1970 (“El Shock del Futuro”). Si USA produjera dólares en billetes verdes, la inflación mundial sería de verdad alarmante; pero los dólares virtuales (al parecer) no circulan con la velocidad del dinero físico y no producen lo que podríamos llamar un ‘efecto inti’. Pero existen.

Estimado Carlos, desde hace algún tiempo sigo los artículos que publica, lo cual sin temor a exagerar me parecen realmente didácticos y excelentes, coincido totalmente con su planteamiento, el crecimiento económico es importante, pero no suficiente, para lograr un desarrollo económico importante, este tiene que darse de manera integral, que comprende los sectores de educación, salud, infraestructura y un orden legal transparente, solo aplicando reformas estructurales a estos sectores, podemos conseguir el tan anhelado desarrollo económico. Creo que estamos por el camino correcto, falta mucho para lograr indices de bienestar de un país desarrollado, pero lo avanzado en los últimos 20 años ha sido significativo. Saludos

con tan buen momento económico deberíamos ver mas allá de lo evidente como:
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Estimado Carlos, un excelente artículo como siempre.

Los retos se proponen para superarse y esperemos que tanto la política económica nacional como las políticas sociales sigan un buen camino y se empiecen a alcanzar mayores niveles de desarrollo en el país.

Me preocupa mucho que uno de los principales retos de nuestro Perú sea permanentemente un asunto de “largo plazo” y me refiero al problema de la calidad educativa. Como bien se señala es un tema que debe abordarse desde una perspectiva integral, es decir en el marco de la reforma del estado. La actual gestión ha emprendido un “borrón y cuenta nueva” de las reformas pasadas y emprendido nuevas medidas que aparentemente no empujan en la misma dirección de lo que se había avanzado, que si bien fue poco por lo menos tenía algo de firmeza.

El financiamiento de la educación es un problema clave. Se está discutiendo actualmente la posibilidad de redistribuir el canon en las regiones que lo reciben. ojalá la medida que se tome pudiera derivar algún porcentaje a mejoras educativas, no meramente como un presupuesto más (porque existen recursos que no se aprovechan, como el canon que reciben las universidades públicas y no es ejecutado) sino como un fondo de promoción de inversiones que dote de herramientas a los Gob. Regionales y Locales para implementar innovaciones educativas en sus territorios.

Otro asunto que es importante es el apoyo a la educación privada. Las innovaciones educativas vienen siendo lideradas por universidades privadas, me puedo equivocar, es mi opinión pero yo veo que la oferta educativa pública no tiene el mismo dinamismo que la privada y ello me lleva a pensar como he señalado. Las políticas educativas del estado se enfocan en lo público y eso no es malo pero porqué no contamos con una política de calidad en la educación privada. ¿Si los recursos públicos no alcanzan para garantizar una educación de calidad por qué no ejercemos acciones regulatorias para garantizar la calidad de la educación privada? No hablo de los colegios grandes, prestigiosos; hablo de esos colegios pequeños, barriales que cobran poco y enseñan igual, que tienen una “amplisisisima” demanda en los sectores C D e incluso E. Por mi trabajo debo visitar infinidad de asentamientos humanos y no hay lugar que haya visitado que no cuente con un pequeño o mediano colegio particular de material noble rebosante de alumnos.

La educación requiere medidas creativas y reales para obtener los recursos que le permitan tomar vuelo y por fin empezar a ser un proceso encaminado en vez de un eterno asunto de largo plazo.

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